Yellowstone volcano: Will another California earthquake trigger a Yellowstone eruption?

YELLOWSTONE volcano has the potential to produce cataclysmic destruction across the US. So, could another California earthquake trigger an eruption at Yellowstone?

yellowstone-volcano-california-earthquake-trigger-yellowstone-eruption-big-one-usgs-1149793Yellowstone volcano: The probability of it happening in the next 1,000 years is “exceedingly low”

 

A magnitude 6.4 earthquake rattled the nerves of Southern California residents yesterday, with the quake’s epicentre only 115 miles (182km) northeast of Los Angeles. Although relatively benign, the California earthquake revived concerns the area surrounding the notorious San Andreas fault line is due another Big One – a magnitude 8 or higher quake. This thought has also led some to wonder whether another, more powerful, California earthquake could to trigger another Yellowstone supervolcano eruption. Ben Edwards, a law professor at Universit of Las Vegas, tweeted: “I had a flash of terror that maybe Yellowstone had actually gone off and I’d need to strike out in some direction to try to escape the ash cloud.”

Could another California earthquake trigger a Yellowstone volcanic eruption?

While an eruption at Yellowstone in the distant future is possible, the probability of it happening in the next few thousand years is “exceedingly low,” according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).

The magma lurking in Yellowstone’s shallow reserve is between just five and 15 percent molten.

And an eruption usually requires at least 50 percent to gel in this gooey molten state.

More likely than such an explosion is a lava flow – a spurt of slowly oozing molten rock.

yellowstone-volcano-california-earthquake-trigger-yellowstone-eruption-big-one-usgs-1947856Yellowstone volcano: An eruption usually requires at least 50 percent molten magma

 

Although a lava flow can pose hazards for communities that lie in its path or spectators attempting to approach close enough to roast a marshmallow, those dangers are much easier to predict and avoid.

However, there are rare historic precedents for magnitude 6 or greater earthquakes with linked to a subsequent eruption or at a nearby volcano.

The exact triggering mechanism for these historic examples is not well understood, but the volcanic activity probably occurs in response to severe ground shaking caused by the earthquake or a change to the pressure in the Earth’s crust.

For example, in November 1975, a large magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck Hawaii’s Big Island.

It was centred about 17 miles (28km) southeast of Kilauea Volcano, which proceeded to erupt.

A volcano such as Yellowstone is considered “super” if an explosion has ever released more than 240 cubic miles of material.

Little in reality is really understand about supervolcano triggers.

This is true, thankfully, because no supervolcano has ever been active enough to study in detail.

USGS studies have estimated an eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano might be 1,000 times more powerful than the 1980 Mount St Helen eruption, which spewed a combination of magma, vapour, rocks and gases into the air.

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Yellowstone volcano: An eruption at Yellowstone in the distant future is possible
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Yellowstone volcano: Another California earthquake trigger will not trigger a Yellowstone eruption

The explosion’s grizzly aftermath saw 57 people die and molten ash spread for more than 1,000 miles (1,500km).

Yellowstone’s supervolcano has erupted on three major occasions.

The supervolcano last erupted 174,000 years ago and last flowed with lava around 70,000 years ago.

The first eruption 640,000 years ago, creating the famous Yellowstone Caldera, a volcanic crater measuring 30 miles (48km) wide and 44 miles (72km) across.

 

California braced for more aftershocks after 7.1 magnitude earthquake

  • Powerful tremor strikes 125 miles north of Los Angeles
  • Communities already assessing damage from 4 July quake

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Officials in southern California’s high desert are braced for strong, potentially dangerous aftershocks from a major earthquake that damaged buildings, ruptured gas lines and sparked numerous fires near its remote epicenter.

The magnitude 7.1 tremor rocked the Mojave desert town of Ridgecrest near Death Valley National Park as darkness fell on Friday, jolting the area with eight times more force than a 6.4 quake that struck the same area 34 hours earlier.

Southern California can expect more significant shaking in the near future, said Lucy Jones, a seismologist at the California Institute of Technology and a former science adviser at the US Geological Survey.

There is about a one in 10 chance that another 7.0 quake could hit within the next week and the chance of a 5.0-magnitude quake “is approaching certainty”, Jones told reporters, adding that the new quake probably ruptured along about 25 miles of fault line and was part of a continuing sequence.

California governor Gavin Newsom requested federal assistance and placed the state Office of Emergency Services (OES) on its highest alert.

“We have significant reports of fires, structural fires, mostly as a result of gas leaks or gas line breaks,” OES director Mark Ghilarducci told a late-night news conference.

The quake caused water main breaks and knocked out power and communications to parts of Ridgecrest, a city of about 27,000 about 125 miles north-east of Los Angeles. No fatalities or serious injuries were reported, police said. But Ghilarducci said the full damage would not be known before daybreak on Saturday.

“This was a very large earthquake, and we also know there’s going to be a series of aftershocks as a result of the main quake,” he said, adding his agency faced a “challenge” getting needed resources to the isolated quake zone.

“This is not going to be something that’s going to be over right away.”

In the hours after the 7.1 tremor, seismologists recorded more than 600 aftershocks. The quakes were not expected to trigger larger faults including the San Andreas.

Ridgecrest, where residents were still recovering from Thursday’s quake, again took the brunt of the damage. Most occurred came from ruptured gas lines. About 3,000 residents were without power, according to Southern California Edison. Many said they preferred to sleep outside than risk staying in their homes.

Megan Person, director of communications for the Kern county fire department, said the county had opened an emergency shelter. A rockslide closed state route 178 in Kern River Canyon, where photos from witnesses showed that a stretch of roadway had sunk.

San Bernardino county firefighters reported cracked buildings and one minor injury. In downtown Los Angeles, 150 miles away, offices in skyscrapers rolled and rocked for at least 30 seconds.

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Brian Humphrey of the Los Angeles fire department told KNX-AM radio more than 1,000 firefighters were mobilized. At Dodger Stadium the press box lurched for several seconds.

Reports said the quake rocked chandeliers and rattled furniture as far away as Las Vegas, and the US Geological Survey said it was felt in Mexico too. In Vegas, players and staff left the court after the earthquake was felt during an NBA summer league game between the New York Knicks and the New Orleans Pelicans.

Friday’s quake came as communities in the Mojave were assessing damage after several fires and multiple injuries caused by Thursday’s quake. That quake opened three cracks across a short stretch of state route 178 near the tiny town of Trona, said California transportation spokeswoman Christine Knadler. Bridges were being checked.

The pair of quakes were the most powerfulto strike the region since 1994, when the 6.7 magnitude Northridge quake hit the heavily populated San Fernando Valley. That event caused 57 deaths and billions in dollars of damages from collapsed buildings and destroyed freeways.

Southern California residents should expect more earthquakes in coming years, experts warned.

“This is the first magnitude 6 quake in 20 years. It’s the longest interval we’ve ever had,” Jones told the Guardian. “We know that the last 20 years was abnormal … we should expect more earthquakes than we’ve been having recently.”

She added: “Chances are, we’re going to have more earthquakes in the next five years than we’ve had in the last five years.”

Los Angeles on Friday revealed plans to lower slightly the threshold for public alerts from its earthquake early warning app. The technology gave scientists at the California Institute of Technology’s seismology lab 48 seconds of warning but did not trigger a public notification.

“Our goal is to alert people who might experience potentially damaging shaking, not just feel the shaking,” said Robert de Groot, a spokesman for the US Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert system, which is being developed for California, Oregon and Washington.

The west coast ShakeAlert system has provided non-public earthquake notifications on a daily basis to test users including emergency agencies, industries, transportation systems and schools. Late last year, the city of Los Angeles released a mobile app intended to provide ShakeAlert warnings for users within Los Angeles county.

The trigger threshold for the app required a magnitude 5 or greater and an estimate of level 4 on the separate Modified Mercali Intensity scale, the level at which there is potentially damaging shaking.

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Although Thursday’s quake was well above magnitude 5, the expected shaking for the Los Angeles area was level 3, de Groot said. A revision of the magnitude threshold down to 4.5 was under way, but the shaking intensity level would remain at 4. The rationale is to avoid numerous ShakeAlerts for small earthquakes that do not affect people.

“If people get saturated with these messages, it’s going to make people not care as much,” he said.

California is partnering with the federal government to build the system, with the goal of turning it on by June 2021. The state has already spent at least $25m building it, including installing hundreds of seismic stations throughout the state.